Kashmir: What is the motivation behind the latest terrorist assaults in Jammu?

Ashok Sharma’s town is gripped in fear. He is a local contractor who lives in Hiranagar, a town in the Jammu region of India-administered Kashmir.

Recent militant attacks in the area have created a sense of paranoia among the locals. Many residents are now too afraid to leave their homes at night.

“For the past few weeks, we have witnessed numerous attacks, each leaving behind a trail of death and terror,” he told DW. “I fear that one day, these militants will force us to leave this place.”

At least four Indian soldiers, including an officer, were killed in a gunfight with suspected rebels in the forests of the Doda district in the Jammu Division, the army said on Tuesday. The attack comes a day after the Indian army said it killed three suspected militants as they tried to cross from the Pakistan-controlled side of the highly militarized dividing line.

On July 8, five Indian army soldiers were killedand five others were injured in an ambush by militants on an army convoy in Kathua district. Last month, at least nine people were killed and 33 injured when a bus carrying Hindu pilgrims plunged into a deep gorge after a militant attack in Reasi district.

According to official figures, 29 terrorist-related violent incidents have taken place in the Jammu region since 2021, with an increase in civilian casualties. The total number of deaths was 12 in 2023 compared to 17 in the first six months of 2024 in Jammu alone.

The government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi revoked Jammu and Kashmir’s semi-autonomous status in August 2019 and split the state into two federally administered territories. The government has stepped up its crackdown on militants in the Kashmir Valley since then. In response to these counterinsurgency operations, the militants shifted their operations to the Jammu region, which had been relatively militancy-free over the last two decades. 

The Himalayan region of Kashmir, which is claimed by both India and Pakistan, has been embroiled in violence since the start of armed insurgency there in 1989. Tens of thousands of people have been killed in the ensuing violence. 

Change in strategy?

For many analysts, these militant attacks have become a mounting undertaking in the Jammu region.

Shesh Paul Vaid, the director general of police in Jammu and Kashmir from 2016-2018, told DW that the new spate of militant attacks is disturbing and a cause of concern for the security establishment.

“These militants are all foreigners from Pakistan. They have managed to infiltrate through the international border. The Jammu region has been peaceful, and we must take immediate steps to ensure peace returns and eliminate all infiltrators.” he told DW.

Indian officials have long blamed Pakistan for training and funding militants in the Indian-controlled areas of Kashmir, a claim the government in Islamabad has repeatedly denied.

Vaid also points out that these militant attacks can partly be seen as a move to deter holding assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir, which would be the first since Article 370 was struck down in August 2019. The Indian Supreme Court has ordered the Election Commission to hold assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir by the end of September.

For Ajai Sahni, executive director of the Institute for Conflict Management in New Delhi, the recent militant attacks in Jammu and Kashmir will not deter assembly elections, as voting has taken place in the region amid violence before.  

Speaking about the topographical limitations, Vaid says that Jammu is a difficult zone for the armed forces due to its mountainous terrain, thick forests and proximity to the Line of Control, the Indian-Pakistani border along the disputed region. 

“Militants take advantage of less connectivity in the region and a shortage of military forces that have been redeployed to the Line of Actual Control (China-India border) in Ladakh in the aftermath of the China [border] standoff in 2020,” he said.

Government’s narrative challenged

The Indian government’s narrative that the 2019 scrapping of special status for Jammu and Kashmir would temper militant activities in the region has been widely rejected by experts and politicians.

Omar Abdullah, former chief minister of the state and leader of National Conference (NC), one of the main regional parties in Jammu and Kashmir, told local reporters recently that the spate of deadly attacks on security forces proved that militancy has not ended in in the region and is contrary to the government’s claim that the abrogation of Article 370 brought peace and stability to the state.

At a press conference, a spokesman for the opposition Indian National Congress said that the Jammu region was “becoming the epicenter of terror incidents,” and this reflects the “strategic failure” of the Modi government. 

However, security expert Ajai Sahni disagrees with this assessment of a “strategic failure” for Modi and instead describes the situation as “a tactical and policy failure on the part of the central government.”

Should villagers be armed?

In January 2023, after seven Hindus were killed in two back-to-back terror attacks in Dhangri village in the Jammu region, Indian authorities revived government-sponsored Village Defense Guards (VDGs), civil-militia groups. Soon after, thousands of villagers, including several teenagers, were being trained and armed.

Dheeraj Sharma, the village head in Dhangri, believes that locals in every village across Jammu should be given more guns to protect themselves from terror attacks.

“These new attacks are alarming for us. We can’t sit at home helpless and see our people getting killed. We will need more guns to fight them,” Dheeraj told DW.

In his village, which is situated in the border region, hundreds of residents have been trained and armed to protect themselves from militant attacks. These civil militia groups sometimes patrol at night and undertake search operations in the area to prevent militant attacks. Many rights groups are critical of arming the villagers for self-defense.