The Middle East is on course to surpass Asia and become the world’s second-largest gas producer in 2025, trailing only North America, according to the latest research and analysis from Rystad Energy.
Driven by a 15 per cent surge in gas output since 2020, regional producers are intensifying efforts to monetise their vast reserves and develop export capacity to meet rising global demand.
Currently, the region produces about 70 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfd) of natural gas — a figure projected to jump by 30 per cent to roughly 90 Bcfd by 2030 and by 34 per cent by 2035.
This growth is fueled by major developments in Saudi Arabia, Iran, Qatar, Oman, and the UAE, and will result in the Middle East alone adding another 20 Bcfd to the market by 2030 — comparable to half of Europe’s entire current gas demand.
However, this bullish outlook depends largely on Brent prices holding at US$70 per barrel and oil-indexed gas prices staying in the US$7–9 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) range.
Should prices dip below US$6 per MMBtu, new projects could face delays, and the expected 30 per cent growth in volume by 2030 could shrink to as little as 20 per cent, depending on the severity and duration of price declines.
To fully leverage this momentum, Middle Eastern producers are preparing for a major ramp-up in exports.
By 2030, an additional 10 Bcfd of gas will be available for export, positioning the region as a vital supplier for both Europe — working to limit dependence on Russian energy — and fast-expanding markets in Asia.
Consistent annual output growth of about 6 per cent is projected, underscoring the region’s determination to become a global energy powerhouse.
Mrinal Bhardwaj, Senior Analyst, Upstream Research at Rystad Energy, noted: “About half of the 20 Bcfd new supply will meet rising domestic demand, particularly from industrial users, while the rest will be available for export.
“As more long-term gas contracts are signed and export volumes rise, the Middle East is on track to become a key energy hub for countries seeking stable and dependable sources of natural gas.”
This expansion is bolstered by new projects capable of producing gas at less than US$5 per thousand cubic feet.
The Gulf countries of Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia are at the forefront of this growth, led by Qatar’s ambitious North Field expansion.
That project alone will elevate the nation’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacity by 80 per cent, from 77 to 142 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) by the end of the decade, all while maintaining a competitive breakeven price of under US$6 per MMBtu.
“A drop below US$6 per MMBtu is not ideal for investments, but Middle Eastern projects remain highly resilient due to their low breakeven costs, typically below US$5 per thousand cubic feet,” added Rahul Choudhary, Vice President, Upstream Research at Rystad Energy.
“Even in a prolonged low-price environment, we expect strong production growth from the region. While some final investment decisions could be delayed in such a scenario, the overall impact on output should be limited.”
By 2028, regional LNG capacity is expected to expand by 60 Mtpa — accounting for a large share of Rystad Energy’s forecasted global increase of 150 Mtpa.
Qatar is positioning itself as the frontrunner, adding 48 Mtpa through its North Field East and North Field South projects.
The UAE will supply a further 10 Mtpa with the Ruwais LNG project, and TotalEnergies is leading the development of the Marsa LNG project in Oman, bringing in an additional 1 Mtpa.
Investments exceeding US$50 billion highlight the scale and ambition behind these projects, as the Middle East fortifies its global LNG standing.
Iran is currently the Middle East’s largest gas producer at about 25 Bcfd, followed by Qatar at 16 Bcfd and Saudi Arabia at 8 Bcfd.
Although Iranian output has stagnated in recent years due to Western sanctions, production is anticipated to rise 6 per cent by the decade’s end, largely from the country’s legacy South Pars field, which recently faced a partial shutdown during the Iran-Israel conflict after an Israeli airstrike.
In contrast, Qatar stands poised for rapid growth, with output projected to soar nearly 50 per cent to 24 Bcfd on the back of its North Field expansion.
The UAE and Saudi Arabia are each expected to add 3 Bcfd, while Israel will see an increase of 1.5 Bcfd following expansions at the Leviathan and Tamar fields.
While Iran is set to conclude the decade as the region’s top producer, analysts forecast Qatar will overtake it in the early 2030s.
Both the UAE and Qatar are executing substantial capacity expansions to cement their roles in the global LNG trade.
Their new LNG volumes are mainly destined for buyers in Asia and Europe, with contracts showing a marked preference for Asian markets.
Sales and purchase agreements have surged, reaching about 21 Mtpa for the period between 2027 and 2030, and with Chinese national oil companies and global energy majors emerging as major counterparts.
As geopolitical and market dynamics shift, the Middle East’s ambition to transform itself into a global gas and LNG hub remains steadfast — driven by vast reserves, competitive economics, and growing demand across continents.
